Editor’s Brief¹

Last week we released our China Thesis which drove some awesome discussion on LinkedIn. That is exactly what this newsletter is built for, challenging conventional assumptions. Sometimes, the conventional answer is correct. But it still needs to be talked about if we have the time.

The same applies this week. We all want a “best” counter-UAS system. We want clean answers. But the reality is more complex. it's shaped by context, constraints, and narratives.

And maybe that’s the point: capability wins battles, but narrative shapes the battlefield.

As always, your feedback shapes our coverage—reply directly with insights or questions.

Jump Ahead

• Signal Brief

• Tech Radar

• Market Signals

• Looking Ahead

Signal Brief: Allen Control Systems: Reinventing Kinetic Counter UAS

Allen Control Systems (ACS) is tackling one of the fastest-evolving threats in modern warfare: low-cost drones that overwhelm traditional defenses.

Their flagship system, Bullfrog, turns standard NATO machine guns into AI-driven counter small UAS (C-sUAS) platforms capable of detecting and neutralizing unmanned aerial systems autonomously.  

Most drone defense solutions fall into two buckets: soft-kill (jamming, microwaves) and hard-kill (bullets, missiles). And ACS is upgrading the traditional hard kill layer instead of replacing it.

Origins & Vision

Founded in 2022 by Navy nuclear engineers Steven Simoni and Luke Allen, along with serial tech operator Mike Wior, ACS was purpose-built to meet an operational need:

Rather than inventing a whole new weapon system, they asked: What if we just made the machine gun smarter?

A breakthrough came at TREX 24-2, where Bullfrog was the only autonomous kinetic defeat system selected to participate and had several successful multi-drone engagements. This year, at Project Convergence 2025, Bullfrog scored a perfect 7-for-7 in a live Army breach scenario.

Key Takeaways

• Budget alignment – Kill a drone for $5, not $500,000.

• Pentagon Alignment: Directly supports Joint C-sUAS Office goals: affordable, fieldable, deployable.

• Instant deployment – Operational in <2 minutes; full training in 30.

• Well Capitalized – Closed a $30M Series A in March 2025

Tech Radar:

Bullfrog – AI-Guided Firepower in a Box

A plug-and-play turret that gives legacy guns machine-precision targeting

Key Capabilities

• Autonomous fire control - Passive optical tracking + onboard AI. No radar emissions. No comms signature.

• Modular integration - Bolts onto NATO weapons, from M240s to M134s, and can plug into broader battle networks.

• Human-on-the-loop - Selectable autonomy and semi-autonomy modes support operational flexibility.

• Minimal training required - War fighters trained in ~30 minutes. Designed for use under stress.

Mission Flexibility

• Tripod, vehicle, and fixed-site configurations

• Maritime variants for harbor or shipboard defense

• Larger calibers for extended-range or heavier-drone threats

By designing for plug-and-play adaptability, Bullfrog slots into whatever mission set needs point-defense.

Market Signals

Funding & Growth

• Total Funding: $42M across Seed and Series A

• Latest Round: $30M Series A (Mar 2025)

• Notable Investors: Craft Ventures, Inspired Capital, Rally Ventures, Forum Ventures

• Valuation: Undisclosed

ACS was selected for both the a16z American Dynamism list and Harpoon Ventures’ Black Flag 100.

Contracts & Government Traction²

Allen Control Systems currently has no public contract wins. However success includes:

• JCO Participation: Joint Counter-sUAS Office (JCO) 6th demonstration in April 2025

• Project Convergence 2025: Bullfrog scored 7/7 drone kills during Army breach scenario

• SeaPort NxG: Teamed with Pierce Aerospace under Navy $50B, 5 year IDIQ contract

Since 2017, the DoD has steadily increased investment in the C-UAS mission, with over $1B alone in FY24 across just 14 unclassified programs, with true totals likely higher.

The Army is leading in FY25, with at least 5 contracts in the procurement stage and more in the R&D stage.

In May 2025, DIU and JCO issued a new solicitation for low-collateral defeat (LCD) systems in support of Replicator 2 — specifically seeking scalable platforms that can plug into existing programs of record.

[Replicator 2, launched in late 2024, is focused on neutralizing the threat of small drones targeting critical U.S. forces and infrastructure]

Looking Ahead

If performance alone won contracts, the “Last Supper” consolidation of the 1990s wouldn’t have left us with five primes trading innovation for stability.

Today’s cycle is a little different. Startups can raise hundreds of millions, win SBIRs, and hit unicorn status without ever fielding an operational system. The market rewards the promise of solving tomorrow’s problems, not necessarily delivering them.

Unlike the Cold War, we haven’t faced a peer threat that demands the best. China’s military modernized much faster than expected and on paper, it looks pretty intimidating. But without an actual conflict or forcing function, were often just buying a story.

A story that the system solves today’s priority. That it aligns with this year’s funding memo. That it can survive the next doctrine rewrite or contracting reshuffle.

In that environment, only the right combination of story, system, and timing will work.

This isn’t an indictment of ACS. Bullfrog is actually one of the more tactically relevant cUAS systems I’ve seen. It brings an old idea to today: CIWS for the edge. Just as ships have relied on automated close-in weapon systems since the 1970s, expeditionary units need point-defense capability from FPV drones and swarms now more than ever.

But as ACS and every defense tech startup fights for the next contract or bucket of funding, the lesson is clear:

You need more than performance. You need a future others will bet on. And a path to get into the system.

And that path exists but it takes more than a killer demo.

It takes actually shipping systems, even if it’s not the “best.” Because someone will always be promising to deliver a better mousetrap.

It takes a clear use case that maps to existing doctrine. It takes integrating with what the DoD already fields. And most importantly, it takes champions inside the government who believe in the mission, not just the tech.

Challenges

• Acquisition headwinds – Securing non-traditional pathways or a formal program of record

• Scale-up execution – Transitioning from hand-built demos to high-rate production

• Weapon System trust – Bullfrog must out shoot humans under pressure. No do-overs. 

Bottom Line:

The real shift ACS represents is a rethink of force design.   An embrace of autonomy at the edge, plug-and-play upgrades, and defense webs resilient enough to operate with or without satellite uplinks and high-power infrastructure.

It’s a tactically sound system and a strategically compelling story. In today’s defense landscape, that combination may be the most lethal capability of all.

But, like I wrote in the Epirus piece — Leonidas isn’t a silver bullet. Neither is Bullfrog.
Combined, these could be two of the many systems we will need to keep warfighters safe in the fight.

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1  The views expressed in this newsletter are my own and do not represent the views of the U.S. Navy, Department of Defense, or any government agency. Mention of companies, technologies, or products is not an endorsement or recommendation. The content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.

2  These insights are based on data organized on Pryzm, a defense market intelligence platform and CRM.