Defense Tech Signals

Issue #41 | Redacted

Editor’s Brief

Last week’s piece The Arsenal Isn't Ready Yet opened the door to a more interesting conversation around incentives, growth, and the structural pressures shaping defense tech. The way a company is funded dictates what it builds, how fast it grows, and whether it survives long enough to field a capability that matters.

But if the ecosystem isn’t producing the outcomes we need, then the underlying incentives deserve a hard look. And since I’m not in Congress, I’m focusing on how we finance these companies.

Directly after the Editor’s Brief, you’ll find a one-question poll on what a new structure might look like. One better aligned with defense incentives and the realities of building systems that matter.

Separately, I’ve decided to pull this week’s article. After a few offline discussions, parts of the analysis needed additional verification around specific claims and performance milestones. I’m not in the business of speculation, so once I can provide proper diligence, I will release the piece.

In its place, I’m including two resources that will be useful regardless of where this debate lands

Send any questions my way, and welcome to all the new subscribers.

Signal Brief: The Capital Stack

This is the core question behind the incentives conversation we started last week.

DTS works when the people building the future participate. Add your vote and pass this along to someone who should be part of the discussion.

What Financing Structure would best align Defense Tech with national security incentives

Each model creates a different ecosystem, produces different behaviors, and ultimately shapes what capabilities reach the warfigther. Choose 1 below

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Defense Tech Market Map

For the final article of 2025, I’ve partnered with the Team at Pryzm.io to bring you a Defense Tech Market Map and the team at Leonid Capital Partners for a year-end funding breakdown and look ahead at 2026.

The current map will be available to all subscribers and includes companies from the first 40 articles. Info includes funding, contract obligations, venture fund profiles, and more.

Moving forward, this will become a full ecosystem map and will include all companies and funds in defense and hard tech. Enquire for more info on pricing/availability.

Notice a $99M IDIQ award and assume it guarantees revenue?

It doesn’t.
IDIQs list a ceiling, not the actual dollars obligated.

The DTS primer breaks down some basic contracting vehicles and players in the ecosystem.

  • SBIR and STTR pathways

  • OTA

  • Single/multisource IDIQ

  • AFWERX

  • and More

Download below.

Defense Tech Signals Primer943.18 KB • PDF File

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